https://opiej.mpob.gov.my Oil Palm Industry Economic Journal Tue, 11 Mar 2025 05:16:24 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0 https://opiej.mpob.gov.my/malaysian-palm-oil-price-prediction-using-arima-arch-model/ Tue, 04 Mar 2025 05:55:33 +0000 https://opiej.mpob.gov.my/?p=2431 Read more]]> Palm oil is one of Malaysia’s primary industries. In 2022, Malaysia was responsible for 25.14% of global palm oil production, totalling 18.55 million tonnes, and 31.65% of worldwide palm oil exports, amounting to 15.71 million tonnes (MPOB, 2024; Trend Economy, 2024). This article presents a study for Malaysian palm oil price forecasting using the traditional time series model, with three objectives, to identify the behaviour of palm oil prices in Malaysia, to determine the best model for predicting palm oil prices using the ARIMA model, and to perform a short-term forecast of the future palm oil price in Malaysia. The analysis was conducted using monthly Malaysian palm oil prices for a period of 10 years, 2013–2023. EViews software was used to run the data analysis. It is found that ARIMA (1,1,4) – ARCH (1) model is the most parsimonious model for forecasting the crude palm oil prices in Malaysia. Overall, predicting the monthly price of Malaysian palm oil provides valuable insights that support decision-making across the entire palm oil value chain, from producers and traders to
policymakers and investors.

]]> https://opiej.mpob.gov.my/vision-2020-the-palm-oil-phenomenon/ Tue, 28 Aug 2018 04:49:09 +0000 https://opiej.mpob.gov.my/?p=187 Read more]]> Predicting the future performance of an export oriented commodity like palm oil is no easy task. The prediction has to take into account the long run past performance, resource constraints and challenges faced by the commodity at both the domestic and international fronts. This paper attempts to overview the palm oil industry; what it was in the past, its situation today and its likely development in the future.

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