FORECASTS – OPIEJ

Production and Price Forecast for Malaysian Palm Oil

mpob_admin — Tue, 28 Aug 2018 05:03:37 +0000

In the oils and fats sector, Malaysia can always be associated with palm oil due to its being the world’s biggest producer and exporter of the commodity. Malaysia produces and exports most of its palm oil due to its small population size and receives quite substantial amount of revenues from this product to support its economy. Thus, in this respect, it is important for the country to monitor the commodity’s production as well as its price that can be used in a way to determine the country’s revenue or in various decision-making processes. It is the objective of this paper then to analyse them econometrically and finally to forecast them. The paper indicates that production of palm oil will increase at a decreasing rate in future due to limited availability of land. By 2020, production is expected to reach 22 million tonnes while in the short term, it will be about 15.9 million tonnes in 2006. Price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate as before but in the near future, strengthening its level by increasing gradually in 2006.

The Indonesian Palm Industry

mpob_admin — Mon, 27 Aug 2018 08:37:33 +0000

This paper reviews the past development and prospects in the 2000s of Indonesian oil palm production, noting the rapid expansion of the sector up to the late 1990s and fast growth of private estates and smallholdings. It examines the organization, performance and constraints of chief sub-sectors, indicating relatively low costs of production on estates and even lower costs on smallholdings. It considers the nucleus estate and plasma smallholding development as unexpectedly successful, despite needs for further improvement. The paper views the main current constraints as scarce development capital, inefficient deployment of labour and other resources, poor technological levels, and problems over land acquisition and security. It nonetheless sees a slow improvement occurring, where this could be accelerated by government support with credit and extension, especially for smallholdings. Given such help, the industry should renew its expansion and become the world leading oil palm producer.

US Agricultural Subsidies and their Implications on Oilseeds and, Oils and Fats Trade

mpob_admin — Mon, 27 Aug 2018 08:32:52 +0000

Palm oil is today the leading edible oil traded in the world market, accounting for more than 40% of the total export trade of 17 oils and fats. Although oil palm is widely recognized as the highest yielding oil crop, this does not in any way guarantee that it is the most cost competitive. The reality is that trade distorting measures in the form of agricultural production subsidies and export assistance programmes continue to challenge the competitiveness of palm oil and subsequently, its position as the most competitive vegetable oil. In highlighting the implications of trade distorting agricultural subsidies, it is clear that farmers planting decisions in the US are related to the attractive loan rate rather than the market price, thus introducing potential production-influencing effects into the market place

Malaysian Palm Oil Industry at Crossroads and its Future Direction

mpob_admin — Mon, 27 Aug 2018 08:29:09 +0000

Palm oil accounts for 20% and 46% of the global oil and fats production and trade respectively. Malaysia is the world ís largest producer and exporter of palm oil with a 50% share of world palm oil production and 61% of exports. This paper assesses the growth of the Malaysian palm oil industry and the limitations of land and labour on the future growth of the industry. The industry ís competitive edge will continue to be a vital factor for its future development. Thus, in order to remain competitive, the industry needs to improve on productivity, explore opportunities to diversity the income base, widen the end-use base for palm oil, explore new marketing approaches and intensify vertical integration.

An Economic Analysis of the Malaysian Palm Oil Market

mpob_admin — Mon, 27 Aug 2018 08:08:11 +0000

The objectives of the study are to describe a national model of the Malaysian palm oil market and to identify the important factors affecting the Malaysian palm oil industry. The model is estimated by taking into account total oil palm area, oil palm yield, domestic consumption, exports and imports over the period of study between 1970 and 1999. The results show the importance of the Malaysian economic activity, the exchange rate and world population in affecting the palm oil industry. Other factors are palm oil stock level, price of palm oil, technological advancement in production technique and the price of soyabean oil