PRODUCTION FORECASTS – OPIEJ

Evolution of the Latin American Oil Palm Sector During the Last Decade (1991 – 2001)

mpob_admin — Mon, 27 Aug 2018 23:38:27 +0000

In the last decade, the oil palm planted area in Latin America has grown consistently, spurring the development of this sector during this period and making oil palm into one of the principal crops cultivated in this region. This dynamic performance can be attributed to the technical characteristics of palm oil, allowing its wide utilization in diverse industrial processes and its market to grow robustly. This document presents an overview of the development of the oil palm agro-industry in the world and subsequently analyses its behaviour in Latin America. It also looks at the economic and social situation of the major oil palm producing countries in the Latin American region. Likewise, the importance of palm oil within the total production and the consumption of oils and fats as well as the evolution of exports and imports of oils and fats in these countries are analysed. This is followed by a brief analysis of the potential market for palm oil in the whole American continent. Finally, Colombia’s vision for its oil palm sector up to the year 2020 is discussed.

Short-Term and Long-Term Projection of Malaysian Palm Oil Production

mpob_admin — Mon, 27 Aug 2018 08:43:31 +0000

Forecasting is of fundamental importance in all of the sciences, including economics. As such, its accuracy is of obvious importance as the forecasts generated are normally being used as inputs to a decision-making process. Knowing this fact, most forecasters have been hard pressed to prepare the most realistic and accurate projections utilizing a variety of quantitative and subjective methodologies. Besides this concern and although it is extremely important to do their best to improve forecast accuracy, we must learn to accept the fact that forecast error is an unavoidable occurrence. Faced with this reality, the forecasters need to effectively capture, measure, report and utilize forecast error to its benefit. They will also keep on reviewing their models from which the forecasts are based on due to the ever changing environment and improving forecast accuracy through a variety of qualitative and quantitative techniques.

An Economic Perspective of Oil Extraction Rate in the Oil Palm Industry of Malaysia

mpob_admin — Mon, 27 Aug 2018 08:41:52 +0000

The national average oil extraction rates (OER) in Malaysia since 1980 until 2002, have fluctuated from a low of 18.48% in 1982 to a high of 19.87% in 1987/1988, although many individual mills have obtained more than 20% OER. In times of low prices of crude palm oil (CPO) as seen in the recent period of 2000/2001 and low yield productivity, producers are challenged to improve the performance of OER as this measurement is a management tool in assessing the profitability of a plantation enterprise. Historical OERs for the past 10 years are used to estimate at the macro level, the quantity and value of CPO loss or gain, arising from the annual change of OER. The differentials of the annual OERs and the 20% benchmark OER are also used to estimate the loss in revenue, since until now, the benchmark OER of 20% has not been attained. The highest loss of CPO revenue amounted to about RM 255 million in 1999 arising from an annual change of minus 0.31% OER, whilst that arising from the differential of the OER in 1999 and the benchmark 20% OER, or a drop of 1.4%, amounted to an astounding RM 1.15 billion in a single year based on an average CPO price of RM 1449.50 in 1999. If CPO is considered in the downstream processing, value adding that could have been achieved ranged from RM 21.53 to RM 54.66/t in the five-year period of 1997-2001.

Palm Oil and Its Global Supply and Demand Prospects

mpob_admin — Mon, 27 Aug 2018 08:01:30 +0000

The paper outlines the global palm oil situation and highlights the developments in the Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil industry. Palm oil has played a positive role in the world oils and fats supply and demand equation largely due to its techno-economic advantages and versatility as well as some of the developments in the world in relation to security of supply, health and environment. The paper will also discuss the various challenges confronting palm oil in the world market, namely self-sufficiency policies by developing countries, crop subsidies by developed countries, stringent standards and quality for trade, non-tariff technical barriers and effects of exchange rate variations.