ABSTRACT:
This article reviews the palm price movement in the first four months of this year and presents a price outlook for the rest of the year. This article identifies and explores the underlying price drivers of CPO futures and cash prices by exploring related palm fundamentals and relevant external variables. Crude palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia have been on a rising trajectory since the start of this year rallying from RM3661 (USD774)/t in January, accelerating to a peak of RM4407 (USD932)/t at the beginning of April, or up RM746 (USD158) or 20% in the three months. Prices took a turn after testing the high of RM4407 (USD932)/t, decelerating rapidly to RM3818 (USD808)/t towards the end of April or down by RM492 (USD104) or 11% in the space of four weeks. Overall year-to-date ending 30 April active month CPO futures averaged RM3989 (USD844)/t or just RM76 (USD16) or 2% higher than the same period last year reflecting a steady to marginal increase in prices compared to last year. This article will address the main factors in understanding the dynamics of CPO futures pricing behaviour by discussing the main fundamental price drivers for the rest of the remaining part of this year.
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