ABSTRACT:
Since the beginning of palm business in the 1960’s, world palm oil production has always shown an upward trend until the year 2019. Even though there were some occasions that made palm oil production go down, such as El Nino in the year 2015-2016, it was a temporary weather anomaly. However, this article explains that a structural, not a temporary, palm oil shortage may occur in 2-3 years. This article reviews the production data in the year 2019-2022 that was published by Minchul Suh (2020), mentioned as P.F hereinafter when the growth of the world’s palm oil production was stagnant. This article forecasts palm oil production in the year 2023-2025, by employing the age profiles of Malaysian and Indonesian oil palm plantations as well as the yield profile of oil palm. According to the methodology used in this article, even without any weather effects, the growth of palm oil production will be stagnant or can even decline until the year 2025.
About Post Author
